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DADM Pilot Project

(1)  A preliminary theoretical framework and hypotheses were developed regarding third-party management of intrastate (domestic) disputes.  The theoretical framework and hypotheses focused on the occurrence and consequences of the use of leverage (both positive and negative inducements) in third-party dispute management.

(2)  Two preliminary coding manuals were developed for the two proposed data sets – Intrastate Dispute Data Set and Third-Party Dispute Management Data Set.  The preliminary coding manuals were revised as necessary throughout the period of the pilot project.  In addition to the main predictor or independent variables and the main outcome or dependent variables, the pilot preliminary coding manuals included numerous contextual or control variables.  Click <here> for preliminary coding manuals.

(3)  An existing set of intrastate dispute cases, which have been disaggregated into their respective phases (pre-crisis, crisis, conflict, post-conflict, and post-crisis), were used to identify and code 150 cases of third-party dispute management (including cases in which positive or negative leverage was used and cases in which leverage was not used by the third-party actors).  Information regarding the intrastate dispute cases, including information on third-party dispute management efforts, has been compiled in a set of historical narratives that have been developed.  Click <here> for the intrastate dispute narratives.

(4)  Several cases of intrastate disputes (dispute phases) were coded using the preliminary coding manual for the Intrastate Disputes Data Set.  Click <here> for pilot project data sets.

(5)  From the compilation of intrastate cases, a total of 30 cases of third-party dispute management were identified and coded from each of the following five regions of the world – Asia/Pacific, Europe/Russia/Central Asia, Middle East/North Africa/Persian Gulf, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Western Hemisphere.  A total of 150 cases of third-party dispute management occurring between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010 were identified and coded for the pilot project.  For each case of third-party dispute management involving the use of positive or negative leverage that was selected, a case of third-party dispute management that did not involve the use of leverage was selected.  Therefore, there are 75 cases of third-party dispute management involving leverage and 75 cases of third-party dispute management not involving leverage.  Click <here> for the pilot project data sets.

(6)  The pilot project focused on the relationship between the main predictor or independent variable (the presence/absence of leverage in third-party dispute management efforts) and several outcome or dependent variables.  The outcome variables included the following: (a)  Abatement – did the third-party dispute management effort contribute to the de-escalation of the dispute during the period of the effort or the during the subsequent 30 days (this variable applies to all third-party efforts undertaken during all types of dispute phases); (b) Agreement – did the third-party dispute management effort contribute to a formal or informal agreement between the parties to the dispute (or successfully contributed to carrying out the terms of an agreement) that was in effect for at least 12 months (this variable applies to all third-party efforts undertaken during all types of dispute phases); and (c) Prevention – did the third-party dispute management effort contribute to preventing the escalation or relapse of a dispute during the period of the effort or during the subsequent 30 days (this variable only applies to third-party efforts undertaken during pre-conflict or post-conflict phases, not during conflict phases).

(7)  Descriptive statistics were calculated in order to summarize the information compiled from the pilot project.  Click <here> for summary statistics and preliminary findings.

 

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